The Delivery Economy in 2026: A Market Without Illusions

In 2026, the restaurant market finally emerged from the catch-up growth mode and transitioned to a more stringent financial model. Delivery is no longer perceived as an automatic source of profit increase. Many establishments continue to see turnover growth, but free funds are becoming scarcer.

The reason is not a decline in demand, but a change in the expense structure. The margin has become sensitive to any fluctuations.

1. Fiscal Burden

The main market change occurred not on the storefront, but in accounting.

The reduction of the limit under the patent taxation system to 20 million rubles automatically shifted a significant portion of establishments to other regimes. For a stable restaurant with developed delivery, this means more complex accounting, a different tax structure, and increased administrative burden.

Simultaneously, the increase in VAT to 22% intensified the effect of "hidden cost increase." Even if a restaurant is not a direct VAT payer, it receives it as part of purchase prices, rental payments, and service contracts.

In total, this reduces operational margin by 4–7 percent without any managerial errors on the part of the business. While previously much was compensated by turnover growth, now the decisive factor is the accuracy of the financial model.

2. Acquiring and Financial Infrastructure: Percentages Have Become Noticeable

The share of cashless payments in delivery reaches 90–95%. The increase in acquiring rates to 3–3.5% has become a noticeable expense item.

A 1% commission difference with an average check of 2,000 rubles means 20 rubles per order. With a large volume, this turns into significant amounts over the year.

Besides acquiring, expenses on banking services, online cash registers, fiscal services, and integrations are growing. Each supplier raises tariffs within the market, but collectively this forms a noticeable increase in fixed costs.

3. Logistics: The Most Unstable Expense Item

If in 2020–2023 the main variable was food cost, by 2026 the focus has shifted to logistics.

Increased regulation, licensing requirements in certain regions, restrictions on foreign labor, and competition from large platforms have led to a 25–30% increase in last-mile costs per year. For delivery with limited margin, this is particularly sensitive. The cost of courier service in some cases is comparable to the cost of producing a dish.

4. Change in Consumer Behavior

It is important to understand: the market is not in a state of rapid demand growth. Guests have become more attentive to price, make spontaneous orders less frequently, and compare offers more often. The increase in delivery costs and service fees is quickly reflected in the frequency of orders.

In this situation, businesses face a choice:

1. Pass the cost increase onto the customer;

2. Seek internal stabilization points.

The second path is more challenging but strategically more sustainable.

5. Predictability as a New Value

In 2026, almost no expense item remains stable. Taxes, logistics, banking services, and service contracts add several percent to the cost annually. In total, this turns into tens of millions of rubles for chains and millions even for a single point.

Against this backdrop, IT infrastructure ceases to be just a tool. It becomes part of the financial model. Most tech companies have revised their tariffs. This is understandable: costs, payroll, server and support costs are rising. Indexation seems like a logical step.

But there are those in the market who have chosen the opposite strategy.

FoodSoul is one of the few companies in the CRM and mobile solutions segment for restaurants that publicly decided not to revise and increase tariffs for 2026 for existing clients. The decision seems unconventional against the backdrop of widespread price increases. But the company's logic is simple: if a restaurant needs to maintain its margin, someone in the chain must take a pause.

When profit from a single order is measured in tens of rubles, even a small increase in fixed costs can change the economics of a point. If a restaurant maintains prices for the guest while keeping stable IT costs, it gains additional resilience.

6. 2026: A Test of Financial Resilience

The delivery market is not shrinking but becoming more mature. Growth through marketing budgets and external financing is giving way to financial discipline.

Those who benefit are those who:

• calculate unit economics at the level of a single order;

• control the share of variable costs;

• build their own customer base;

• reduce dependence on external tariff fluctuations;

• establish partnership relationships instead of transactional ones.

The main trend of the year is resilience. In a situation where almost all elements of the chain are becoming more expensive, predictable cooperation conditions become part of the strategy, not just a commercial offer.

Best Regards,

The FoodSoul Team